By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Colorado State University (CSU) researchers predict a “somewhat below normal” Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2026 projections, citing the likely development of a robust El Niño event as the primary reason for their forecast of six hurricanes this year.

Led by senior research scientist and Triple-I non-resident scholar Phil Klotzbach, the CSU TC-RAMS team predicts 13 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which will become major hurricanes, or those that reach Category 3 strength or higher. A typical Atlantic season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The team’s forecast stems from conditions favorable for a strong El Niño, characterized by above-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Typical El Niño events “tend to increase winds high up in the atmosphere,” Klotzbach explained, which increases levels of vertical wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction.

Noting “too much shear tears hurricanes apart,” Klotzbach said that “especially when those events are moderate or strong, they cause very significant impacts in Atlantic hurricane activity.”

A potential record-setting super El Niño on the horizon would suggest impacts far beyond the Atlantic, including extreme heat around the globe. Bringing drought to some regions and flooding to others, the event would help suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while boosting hurricane as well as typhoon risks in the Pacific.

But while “the odds of landfall do go down when the forecast is for below normal activity,” Klotzbach emphasized “there have been significant landfalls in seasons that were somewhat below normal.”

For comparison, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes. Among those five, four became major, including three Category 5 storms – marking only the second year on record that more than two such storms occurred in the Atlantic Basin. Though none made landfall in the U.S., the Category 5 Hurricane Melissa tied with 1980’s Hurricane Allen for the strongest Atlantic Basin landfall by wind speed on record, causing widespread damage throughout the Caribbean.

While the season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, now is the ideal time for families and businesses to review their policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have adequate coverage. Many may be unaware they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters, or commercial property insurance policy. Flood policies are offered through FEMA’S National Flood Insurance Program and dozens of private insurers.

Homeowners can also upgrade their residences to voluntary standards for wind and heavy rain resilience, as modeled by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS). Retrofitting roofs to IBHS FORTIFIED standards, for instance, has demonstrated success in reducing hurricane damage, prompting numerous state governments to begin providing premium discounts to policyholders with completed retrofits.

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By Lewis Nibbelin, Research Writer, Triple-I

Vehicle thefts dropped 23 percent nationwide in 2025, marking the second consecutive year of historic declines, according to the latest analysis from the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB).

At 659,880 thefts, last year’s drop built on the momentum of a 17 percent decline in 2024, previously the largest decrease in total thefts in four decades. Several jurisdictions experienced even greater year-over-year decreases, with vehicle theft down by 39 percent in Washington, 35 percent in Colorado, and 34 percent in Puerto Rico.

“Coordinated prevention efforts by law enforcement, auto manufacturers, insurance companies, and the National Insurance Crime Bureau are having a major impact on vehicle thefts nationwide,” said NICB president and CEO David J. Glawe, adding that such efforts “remain key to protecting families, businesses, and communities nationwide.”

Vehicle thefts surged in 2020 to about one vehicle stolen every 36 seconds, fueled in part by shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Levels remained elevated into 2023, which recorded more than one million thefts as social media trends highlighting vehicle security system vulnerabilities gained traction.

Many trends targeted Kia and Hyundai models, comprising six of the ten most stolen vehicles that year. In response, both manufacturers began implementing stronger prevention measures and software updates, reducing their share of total thefts from 21 percent in 2023 to 14 percent in 2025.

Despite overall progress, vehicle theft across the U.S. still occurs every 48 seconds, the NICB reported. Urban communities are at greater risk, with more than one-third of thefts concentrated in the top ten metro areas in 2025. Accordingly, California – home to three of the top ten areas – recorded the highest number of vehicle thefts in 2025, contributing more than 20 percent of the nation’s total.

Beyond the direct financial cost of losing these assets, theft of vehicles or car components add upward pressure on auto insurance rates, particularly within areas known to be high-risk. The cost to repair and replace stolen vehicles is also rising, compounding a market already impacted by mounting fraud and legal system abuse across the country.

While systemic improvements have helped improve theft rates, vehicle owners must take steps to help mitigate their own risk. Triple-I recommends the following precautions:

• Keep doors locked and windows shut anytime a vehicle is left unattended.
• Hide valuables in the trunk to prevent creating an additional target on the vehicle.
• Park in secure, highly trafficked, and well-lit areas. In public parking areas, stay as close as possible to guard booths or store entrances. Keep personal garages locked.
• Consider anti-theft devices such as audible alarms and steering wheel locks. Many new cars include tracking devices, which can help locate a stolen vehicle, but these are also available for purchase and installation in older cars. Check with an insurance professional to learn how anti-theft devices can qualify policyholders for premium discounts.
• Exploit vehicle identification (VIN) numbers. A number of law enforcement agencies and insurance databases can use a VIN number to make it harder for car thieves to sell a stolen car or its parts.

Staying protected through adequate insurance coverage is also essential. Policyholders with auto policies that meet state-required minimums may lack coverage for vehicle theft or damage from theft, which is typically provided through optional comprehensive insurance.